The Next Big Thing

Executive Editor Greg Kasavin thinks he knows what the Next Big Thing will be. Scoff in the general direction of greg@gamespot.com.

Like I was sayin', the next few years in the industry are going to be hard, but they're also going to be some of the most exciting years in the cycle. Despite all the layoffs, all the studios folding and quitting, it's also a time of great experimentation. Within the next few years, you'll see the launching of many new franchises that will be around for several years. Similarly, as the older consoles hit their shelf life, you will probably see a few last great hurrahs before we put the boxes in our closets with our SNESes and our Atari 2600s. Studios rise and fall, publishers come and go...but games go on. Welcome to Hollyweird, Mark II.

To commemorate the occasion, I'd like to make you a little wager. But first, let me explain. Like Hollywood, Gaming with a capital "G" is always on the prowl for the mythical Next Big Thing, even though most games play it safe and stick with what works. It's a good plan--experimentation is risky, and we think we know what we want to play anyway. But every four to six years, the Next Big Thing rears its ever-changing head, and there's much rejoicing, as well as a considerable amount of forehead-slapping by those claiming they saw it coming from a mile away. Woulda, coulda, shoulda--yet the spoils of victory go to those who were in the right place at the right time with the right game. Luck might have had a part in their success, but above all, those responsible for the Next Big Thing are those willing to take action on something they strongly believe in, naysayers be damned.

Gaming with a capital G is the intangible force that drives games forward (or sideways) in a perpetual pursuit of fame, fortune, and the greater good of the medium. In the past decade, the most important years for Gaming were 1998 and 2001. Little justification is needed after the name-dropping: In 1998, you got Starcraft, The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, Metal Gear Solid, Half-Life, Grim Fandango, Thief: The Dark Project, Gran Turismo, and more. That was years and years ago, and yet most of today's games still have trouble living up to 1998's standards, graphics aside.

Then, in 2001, there was Halo and Grand Theft Auto III, though at the time, people like me figured Metal Gear Solid 2 was going to be the one we went on to remember. Overall, it wasn't nearly as good of a year for games as 1998, but Halo and GTA became some of the most influential action games ever created. That's not all, of course. In between '98 and '01 there were games like Counter-Strike, EverQuest, and The Sims. Besides the point that each of these has been copied on a number of occasions, they've taught us that there are types of games out there that we'd really like to play... We just don't know it yet.

Here we are, five years later, eager to find out what the future holds, expecting much more than just prettier graphics. So what's it going to be? The stars have aligned, and the Next Big Thing is bound to appear again soon. But trying to find it is like playing a shell game, with 1,000 cups instead of three.

Still, one-in-a-thousand odds aren't that bad. So I invite you to place your bet. What's the next wildly influential game on the horizon that nobody else but you sees coming? Is it Huxley? Is it Spore? Is it MotorStorm?

Is it still unannounced?

I'm placing my bet on the idea that the Next Big Thing is still unannounced, but that it's being worked on right this second by a great big group of talented people and will be finished in the next 18 months. That means the game will be announced sometime this year, probably at E3 in May. If it's announced at E3, it won't be the biggest news of the show by any stretch, but it'll pick up momentum from people like me, who'll be there looking for it. It'll be for next-generation consoles, of course; I wouldn't be surprised if it were exclusively for the Revolution. It won't be a sequel to anything. It won't be graphically violent in nature, but it'll be emotionally intense. It won't be a massively multiplayer game.

It won't have separate single-player and multiplayer components, but it'll be online and connected, seamlessly combining the two, providing a shared experience to those who want one. It won't be so far "out there" that you can't quickly relate to the subject matter and get the concept. You'll either like the idea right off the bat or will be curious to learn more about it, or at least be aware that it's attempting to do something different. It'll have experienced creative talent working on it, as well as new blood. Together, the team sees the potential for games to be greater than what they've already become, and they've got all the support they need to make their vision a reality.

The mind behind this game won't be any of the usual suspects--where's the next Will Wright or Hideo Kojima? Hell, where's the next David Jaffe? But he or she and the team have deep pockets and discipline. They're applying the good business rule that you've got to spend money to make money, but that money should be no object in the pursuit of quality. They're not killing themselves making this game--they're working hard to keep a level head and keep the project on an ambitious but realistic schedule. Imagine how great of a game one of those wealthy companies out there could make if they weren't constantly worrying about release dates and the bottom line. How great of a game could they make if they went out on a limb to create a game that their best, most visionary people were really excited about? And then they could sequel it all to hell or something. But seriously.

Remember the old AT&T commercials that had people, like, speeding around in flying cars or getting groceries delivered to their doorsteps and other far-flung futuristic stuff like that? If you didn't ever see yourself doing stuff like that, AT&T reassured you, "You will." It was a compelling message and, more than anything, I think it applies to games. Games have provided me with some of the greatest experiences I could imagine, and whenever I'd imagine up new ones, generally it wouldn't take too long for someone out there to make them a reality. Everything you want games to become is going to happen sooner or later, because you demand it.

Next Up: Jason Ocampo