The horse is supposed to be ahead of the cart, not the other way around. The question is not how much should a $600 console with few games sell?; but rather, what should a console be priced at and what game support does it need to sell well?
Sony is trying to win in the MASS MARKET, not in a niche market. They have an install base of 110+million vs MS 20 million. All things being equal they SHOULD be pummelling MS in sales. MS will reach last generations 20 million in sales by a year from today at the latest. Everything else they sell in the years ahead is going to cut in to Sony's market share. That is the good news.
The bad news is that Sony is also under withering assault by Nintendo, especially in Sony's backyard, Japan. So, not only are they losing market share to MS but they are also losing even more market share to Nintendo.
Ipso facto, they are in serious trouble/decline getting punished by both casuals and hardcore gamers.
That doesn't mean that they won't sell a decent amount. It doesn't mean that PS3 is just going to vanish. In fact, since most PS 2 owners are obviously still waiting....Sony could still come out on top and could still sell the most consoles in absolute numbers. Too bad that doesn't really matter. You freak fanboys think that simple #s sold matter and that if Sony ends up at 34% vs 33% 360 and 33% Wii that that would be a win..or success. Wrong. That would be a total disaster.
Sony has started with 80%+ market share. There is no possible way that they will keep anywhere near that market share this generation. You ask what should a $600 console sell? I ask why they were stupid/arrogant enough to price at $600 and lose huge market share.
Sony launch strategy = failure at best, catastrophic failure possible
Nintendo launch strategy = stunning success
MS launch strategy = somewhere in between
Think about it...by the end of 2007 360 and Wii sales combined will already have achieved last generations total sales for non-PS 2s. Therefore, 9/10 consoles sold after Jan 1st 2008 would have to be PS 3s for Sony to maintain market share. Clearly that won't happen.
Consequently, this generation is already a body blow to Sony and a loss (compared to last generations market share). The only question is how much share are they going to lose? And is it possible for them to lose the number 1 position? They probably will still finish first in absolute sales but they will have been smoked in losing market share.
Since this is a marathon, not a sprint, that means Nintendo and MS are both going to be relatively stronger, and Sony relatively much weaker which sets up a bloodbath for Wii2, MS720, and PS4.....which is likely the best possible outcome for us the consumers. Competition is good. Enjoy whatever system you have and hope they all do reasonably well...it is in our interest.
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