DEVELOPING: Russian coup imminent, Wagner marches toward Moscow

I'll keep it short since this is developing.

Lot of what I gathered is from various tidbits on TV news, social media, internet videos, whatever I can gather additional info.

What I"ve gathered so far:

• 25k Wagner troops are within Russian borders on way to Moscow
• 400 supporting armored vehicles are with them
• They're moving through cities and checkpoints unopposed
• Unclear if their target is Russian Dense Minister and/or Putin
• Russia is deploying armor to Wagner positions in Ukraine and to Moscow to bolster their defenses
• Russia has ordered Wagner boss to be arrested
• Wagner boss denies he's attempting a coup, calling it a "March for Justice" or something or other
• Wagner boss claims Russian forces attacked their positions in Ukraine

There's more interesting stuff to share but it's those stupid vertical videos for TikTok deplorable that YouTube now makes I hate those.

Not that I want to cheer on the Wagner boss considering he's a murderous mercenary who engaged in human rights violations across the globe. He pretends to value his troops lives even though he uses them as cannon fodder and shoots those who retreat. His forces murder, maim, torture, rape Ukranian troops and civilians.

His beef with Russian military comes down to spoils they get for taking territory, and multiple times Russia's military has cheated Wagner from their getting the spoils of their territorial gains by claiming credit. This reward has lead to them firing on each other throughout the war going back a while.

He's trying to take a moral high ground from the public optics of the situation by claiming Russia is responsible for the death of his troops (not himself) but also calling the entire war a lie to the Russian people (that part is true) that the senior military leaders lied to Russian people about Ukraine being a threat to them.

He's just as bad as Putin if not worst but who knows, just glad these fuckers are wiping each other out now. Hopefully Ukraine can sit back and watch it unfold and maybe take advantage of the situation.

Hopefully not an ominous sign of just how this might cascade to a greater global conflict, but Russia has said earlier they're deploying the multi-nuclear warhead Satan-II hypersonic missiles to Belarus. And earlier today the person who designed the Soviet's H-bomb was found dead in Moscow by suicide. Not sure whatbit means.

Russia's nuclear arsenal (one could only hope) is suspected to possibly be neglected for decades so much their bombs might not actually work. Hope that's the case. Just their conventional missiles in Ukraine have had a 20-60% failure rate depending on the day. They lack trained pilots, long distance communication, and lack ability for combined armed operations. If a nuclear scenario does unfold and fails or partially fails I'm very curious whether NATO pounces on Russia immediately.

The thing that worries me about Putin isn't about him say maybe casually using nukes as surely he knows that mutually assured destruction is a guaranteed outcome. But if he faces being overthrown at home, he'd do it, brtter that than be killed, or arrested and publicly humiliated before rhe world, because by that point he'd just be like screw everyone, world gets annihilated and he'll be sent to a hidden bunker to live out the rest of his life in luxury with a harem of sex slaves.

This is really bizarre and eerie to watch unfold in real time in a country like Russia. I mean, you hear about coup d'etat in some South American country or Africa or South Pacific island or something and they usually happen overnight and then the oppression comes, but to see it happen in a country full of people that, for lack of a better term, look like me (white folks) is kind of jarring.

Not that I want to take it to a place of race (nor be accused racism) but it seems to strike closer to home in this respect.

Can't wait to hear all the far-right nationalists talk about how this guy is a patriot and they should do the same thing here in the US.

Yeah, I don't think Western powers would lose a war, nuclear or conventional, against Russia. I do think it would be really, really bad though. Even if 20% of nukes hit near their targets, that's still a lot of nukes. A lot of pointless death for nothing.

Russia is not in good shape though. I think they might win a war of attrition with Ukraine over a period of years if Western support wavers, but honestly they look weak.

My thoughts are with our MAGA brothers. All the best!

Jokes aside I wonder if NATO realised that Wagner being a mercenary group it would be more practical to just offer them more than what Putin does. Also, pretty basic error from Russia, at least the US is smart enough to subsidize mercenaries for their wars very far from their borders not at their door steps.

idk this will get lock or not.

but it is breaking and important news atm,.

Outside of manufacturing an excuse for ruzzia to occupy belarus "in order to secure nuclear weapons" it's a complete nothing burger. First, ruzzia deployed strategic nukes in kaliningrad years ago, which is closer to western Europe, second, belarus is just a few minutes closer than mainland ruzzia in terms of nuke warhead travel time, so it changes nothing in term of threat level.

According to one YouTuber that I follow for Ukraine-Russia war news, their movement in Rostov-on-Don was to seize the regional military administration, they're now further north in the next oblast north Voronezh.

There's been reports of gunfire between Wagner forces and Russian military within Russia's borders. Wagner says Russian military dispatched aircraft to attack their column, which they shot down.

He also says the Wagner boss was in talks with one of the powerful oligarchs in months leading up to this. There could be other organized elements involved in the coup back in Moscow.

I've heard older conjecture before about how Putin isn't some lone calling all shots dictator but a front-man that relies on the backing of the oligarchs and how the war likely split the various oligarchs into factions. If true and the Wagner boss has the backing of oligarchs I think there could be some cards up his sleeve as he approaches Moscow.

Perhaps some other corrupt military administrators in region tasked with defending city are waiting to join Wagner's forces when they reach the city. Maybe, maybe not. Maybe Putin will get paranoid and start offing oligarchs he thinks is behind the coup and if that happens sheesh, gonna get crazy.

@rmpumper: it doesn't make sense to me either why it would matter if it were in Belarus, except maybe to slow a retalitory response by saying Russia didn't fire it, it was Belarus.

Perhaps if it misfires or even if it just sits there not being fired they don't want the radiological contamination. I remember few years back they were just testing them that was a big issue.

The missile's main advantage from what I can tell isn't its speed though that was a selling point, mainly it's the detection, its nuclear powered rocket doesn't have the same signature as other rockets and thus harder to track because it doesn't leave the same kind of trail.

Ukraine should (and will) capitalize on this.

As per the UK's MOD analysis of the situation. In the coming hours and days, the loyalty of Russia's internal security forces, and critically, the Russian National Guard, will be very important in to how this plays out.

Watched this. It's about the Wagner Group.

Well at least 25K soldiers aren’t fighting in Ukraine.

Not only that. It's going to increase resource deprivation, which they were already having profound difficulties with, trying to hide it. All this while Ukraine has been prioritizing this over causalities, hitting ammo and weapons (unlike Russia).

Russia biggest asset and biggest danger to Ukraine is artillery. But the artillery they use is spray and pray while Ukraine is obv using stuff like HIMARS which can basically hit a golf-hole. Combined with US intelligence.

Why their "liberation" looks like a post-apocalyptic nightmare of nothing.

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Also other stuff. For the counter-offensive, Ukraine has actually in reality only deployed 1/3 feeling out Russian lines. The majority are held back outside artillery range.

And then theirs the aspect of Russian moral, which is to say, none. Ukraine is actually fighting for something with intent and purpose.

This isn't the case with Russia, from the get go they were fragmented. Using voilence, literally shooting their own men if they retreat. Alot of the folk recruited up rapists and murderers. And alot of them with combatively shitty equipment.

Would they rather fight and die? Or say "yea na" and go on the Wagner crusade?

Either way, Prighozin just unexpectedly became the enemy of my enemy in the most concentrated form.

Wagner leader is a former prison inmate Putin picked to do his dirty work. He can't possibly pull this off. But this whole thing is weakening Russia, which I hope means the war is nearing its end, with Ukraine getting all of its territory back.

@PfizersaurusRex: you don’t know that. They could pull it off. I don’t know either. Only time will tell.

IMO it's quite naïve to think this.

Not something out of the blue, been planned for months. Most likely using the "attack" as a false flag justification.

He will have links and sources internally. as they are all, effectively self-serving crooks.

Part of that as well could even be sanctions which they boast "aren't working", they probably do when you're an oligarch who's just had millions are billions taken away.

I don't think this is good. It's risky and could create a nuclear catastrophe.

Hopefully it will just be long enough to allow Ukraine to regain significant territory but not enough to create a (potentially nuclear) civil war.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672626588045791233

There’s more and more theories pointing toward Prigozhin only being the face of a larger coup, which is supported by parts of the Army and the intelligence services. The goal is to remove Putin, withdraw from Ukraine and return to making business with the world.

BREAKINGPro#RussianChechen Fighters starts moving towards city of Rostow on the call of#Kadyrovto crush the mutiny of#Wagner& their head#PrighozinKadyrov said We support#Putinas always & will wipe out all the trait0rs against#Russia&#Putin#WagnerGroup

The Wagner Group is essentially the shadow arm of the Russian military. He can pull this off. What's more is that the Wagner Group is in the business of further destabilizing destabilized countries and acquiring the natural resources. Not a good alternative to Putin, imo. I'm not saying I like Putin either. It's just this Wagner Group is no joke.

I'm sure he wouldn't go for it without people within the Russian army and intelligence giving him a wink, but the fact that that guy is running the show speaks for itself. A real coup is over before you have your morning coffee and check the news. I think they are playing it safe, letting this guy do some damage and watching how it will unfold. My guess is it will be like the failed coup in Turkey, but we will see soon enough.

@horgen: "Well at least 25K soldiers aren’t fighting in Ukraine."

They also don't have regional the military HQ in Rostov-on-Don which administrated activity and orders in Ukraine.

Damn, saw the map this morning they're in Lipetsk, they'll be in Moscow in no time, few hours at this pace if they don't get held up.

Dang, the situation gets more and more bleak for Russia. Can’t wait to see how this goes.

first Wagner troops are now arriving in Moscow region

Russia is in the midst of a media blackout

rumors are swirling that Wagner is retreating like they worked out a deal with Putin but there's doubt whether it's actually Prigozhin or someone hacked his Telegram with deep fake audio, seems unconvincing as Prigozhin would make an actual video

I have doubts, I think Prigozhin knows that this is a see it through or die trying moment and there's no turning back

Edit: now seeing the stand down reported on news, and rhey're saying the Belarus leader negotiated this stand down, more to come

They'll be making more ground in Russia in a few days than they did over a year in Ukraine.

One moment Putin is fleeing, the other he has worked out a deal with Wagner.

Yea, something sus' going on there.

@uninspiredcup: "Yea, something sus' going on there."

I'd be very curious. There's no way I see things going back to normal between Putin and Wagner, and Putin not kill him or his PMC forces at first opportunity.

Perhaps Wagner provided Putin an out in the war by dropping blame for the whole thing on his military ministry. Not just for the failed invasion, but saying they lied to Outin about the whole pretext of the invasion. It'd be BS of course, but that's their best lie to weasel out of this.

Crazy that we're getting a mirror of how this started.

Remember the 40 line of tanks waiting outside of Kyiv?

Difference is, Ukraine stayed, including Zelensky. Whereas here, the planes were tracked, literally every elite including Putin GTF out of there.

Now the rest of Russian military needs to flee with them, out of Ukraine.

Seems everyone is wondering what the heck happened, because they still don't think Putin won't try to take Prigozhin out. This shit is so Game of Thrones, perhaps there'll be an HBO mini-series about it.

In space of a couple of hours, we had him outright saying on camera the way was bullshit, it was all about the elites grabbing power and that they are lying, with countless Russians dead.

And then on the opposite end Putin calling him a traitor trying to destroy Russia calling for his death.

If thing happens immediately we're gonna have a longer ripple effect hopefully. Seems to me basically implausible to have a magic reset button.

I've seen all day from the pro-Russian MAGA right wing American political base that the coup was funded by the Pentagon, not surprising, but is surprising that FoxNews is now spitting that bullshit out. 🤦

It was recently reported the Pentagon had additional funds to aid Ukraine because they had inaccurate evaluation of the cost for aid supplies. That's extra money not missing money for the MAGA ignoramouses out there. But they claimed that's where the money they claimed paid Prigozhin for the coup came allegedly came from. Those people are hopeless.

@lamprey263: Yeah, it's amusing that MAGA news sources are always so heavily pro-Russian and anti-American, and always seem to echo Russian state propaganda.

It's almost like...hm...it's almost as if Russia has conned and radicalised a bunch of Americans into supporting a pro-Russian candidate?

Turned those who had the red scare into supporting the very thing they were so afraid of?

It makes you wonder how powerful Yevgeny Prigozhin actually is. Marching on Moscow, then stopping and turning round after Lukashenko arbitrates and offers him exile in Belarus. Then Putin drops the treason charges. 🤔

Seems that Prigozhin is almost untouchable? If he is, then Putin isn't as all powerful as it seems....

I'm baffled why Americans straight up elect unbridled traitors.

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1672783588541050880

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1672672994722738176

For context here, Wagner is a group that tortures, mutilated, raped woman and children and purposefully (with orders) kills civilians. It's straight up hired convicted prisoners.

Recently uploaded a video of themselves recently smashing a mans head in with a sledgehammer.

It's like she won this job in some sort of bingo fair or something.

Only not really sure what planet these MAGA folk are on. Acting like it's some sort of win or something. He was literally, outside of the door of the Kremlin with the army and the public instantly going into mutiny mode.

Celebrating while 12 Russian pilots had been killed.

Putin doesn't come across as better, he's weakened, the emporer bleeds.

Either way, these MAGA folk? Come across as pretty braindead.

Seriously, what planet is this idiot on.

@Bond007uk: "It makes you wonder how powerful Yevgeny Prigozhin actually is. Marching on Moscow, then stopping and turning round after Lukashenko arbitrates and offers him exile in Belarus. Then Putin drops the treason charges. 🤔 Seems that Prigozhin is almost untouchable? If he is, then Putin isn't as all powerful as it seems...."

I think Prigozhin did what he did because he was likely a dead man, the writing was on the wall. He just wasn't going to take it lying down. Lukashenko offering him exile in Belarus was an option for self preservation, plus Lukashenko gets a nasty pitbull to protect their borders from multiple threats, like Ukraine miltary attacking them for their role in the war with Russia, and Belarusian expatriates returning to overthrow him because he overthrew their democracy, or even from Russia itself, who might be growing tired of him not committing more to their fight with Ukraine, and might try to put another corrupt puppet in his place. Part of this deal also means Russian military exits the country, something else I think relieves Lukashenko. But, this seems like a deal with the devil kind of exchange. This will likely blow up in his face.

Curious how Lukashenko can keep Prigozhin happy. What happens to Prigozhin's money? What happens to his PMC business? He's kind of stuck in Belarus, I'd imagine. I imagine he can't use Russian airspace, and can't imagine any EU country will let him over their borders and in their airspace.

So I am not up to date on the latest news here.. Does this mean Wagner mercenaries will leave 🇺🇦 ?

@horgen: I belive I heard some of the Wagner mercenaries can transition into the Russian military, though I think I heard it would be those who didn't participate in the Prigozhin's move on Moscow and stayed in their positions. They'd likely stay in Ukraine fighting. Unsure what they'd see as the better option honestly. The experienced Wagner soldiers simply throw the inexperienced prisoners at Ukraine defenses and shoot those who retreat. If they stick around I'm sure they know they'll be cannon fodder themselves. They know the reality of it. They also have to weigh whether they want to live in Belarus in exile. Not an easy choice to make.

What a crazy chain of events! I was watching it unfold yesterday and I couldn't believe it. And the way it all ended, it was stunning! I have tried to make sense of it, but there are way too many unknowns of course.

Perhaps it was exactly what it appeared? Prigozhin was very angry with the military leadership for their incompetens (also allegedly the bombing of a Wagner base) so he moved to replace them. But then Lukashenko convinced him it would cripple Russia and so he decided to no go through with it? Though he is a monster (Wagner is really evil), I guess he is also a patriot?

I felt like everyone who wanted Prigozhin to topple Putin kind of missed that Prigozhin's motives were always very different from their own.

Yes, there was no coup attempt, although this is now the mainstream narrative along with Putin losing control. It seems the wagner guy was simply fed up with the situation... aligning with what he said before at several occasions.

LOL. Consistent I guess.