Crash, no. Large shake-up that leaves many companies in very different states than they are today, sure. The real problem is that the big games keep getting bigger, but the little games aren't getting any bigger. All the money goes into Madden, GTA, Halo, and so on, while none of it's going to the middle tier games of the world. That's going to catch up to the smaller publishers of the world before too long. The big guys will get bigger, the small guys will get bought up or go under. That's sort of how I see it shaking out, anyway.
But there are still ways to make money with lower-budget games, as long as people are still interested in playing them. I doubt games like Harvest Moon would still be getting remade and sequelized if they weren't at least breaking even on a worldwide basis. So it almost seems like the smallest publishers could keep on keeping on, since they've obviously already found a niche to cater to, and the big publishers will continue making games that draw people into gaming, even if they're only interested on a casual basis. It's the middleground that seems dangerous. Companies out there making expensive games that don't sell are the ones at risk. Eidos is a pretty good example of this, but since they just got bought out or whatever, maybe they'll make some more changes to how they do business and find a way to keep making money.
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